Will AI Transform Advertising? Google’s Ad Dominance & The Resilience of Traditional Media

Welcome to The Refresh, a weekly newsletter from AdTechGod and Marketecture. Every Thursday we’ll bring you the latest advertising news, commentary, and memes.

• Australia seeks minimum social media age (Reuters)

• Unraveling the mystery of Pubmatics $5M loss from a 1st price auction switch (AdExchanger)

• ‘They’re wrong’: The Trade Desk CEO denies rumors amid reports it’s building a smart TV operating system (Digiday)

• Meta to restrict data in business tools, impacting ad targeting (SearchEngineLand)

• Retail media frenzy muddies negotiations with brands, who agency execs say must spend or ‘suffer the consequences’ (Digiday)

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Our dear leader gives his hot takes on the news of the week

Google dominates online ads

In federal court, former News Corp executive Stephanie Layser testified that Google's ad tech tools, specifically its publisher ad server (DFP), are difficult for publishers to leave, likening it to being "held hostage." Layser criticized Google's 2019 unified pricing rules (UPR) for limiting competition and forcing publishers to accept unfavorable changes. Despite DFP’s outdated technology, its market dominance—nearly 90% share—makes switching to alternatives like AppNexus too risky. Layser's testimony, along with insights from other witnesses, supports the DOJ’s antitrust case, accusing Google of monopolizing ad tech and stifling competition. Google denies the claims, attributing its success to market dynamics.

Ari’s view: Stephanie’s testimony was really compelling. I find it hard to believe the judge won’t find that DFP is a monopoly, though other parts of the case may be more difficult to prove.

Read the Article

Why traditional media still matters (even if we love to trash talk)

I love charts. Always have. Always will. I can’t make one if my life depended on it, but I sure as heck love to stare at them endlessly and come up with my own interpretations. 

We all expect the advertising industry to continue its shift towards digital-first, multi-channel strategies, but what we may not be aligned on is how we will  maintain traditional media where it makes sense. The digital industry loves to bash traditional media but it isn’t going away anytime soon. It’s just fun to trash talk IMHO. 

The key challenges for brands will be achieving cross-platform integration and measurement to optimize spend across increasingly fragmented channels.

1. Dominance of Digital:

• CTV, Social Media, and Paid Search are expected to dominate ad spend, with CTV leading the way at an 18.4% growth rate. This shows that brands are increasingly focused on reaching audiences through video and interactive formats, which aligns with consumer trends. No brainer.

• Podcasts are growing steadily, which indicates a shift towards more immersive and personalized content experiences. Advertisers recognize the value of direct audience engagement and intimate formats like audio, where trust and attention are higher. Have I told you about our podcasts? Visit Marketecturemedia.com

We will likely see more innovation in digital advertising formats, with an emphasis on integrating data-driven targeting and cross-device capabilities (like reaching users across CTV, mobile, and desktop). Brands will focus on creating cohesive multi-channel experiences that connect with consumers in various contexts. Makes sense, right? Let’s hope we can pull it off.

2. Surprising Rebound for Linear TV:

• The projected turnaround from a -0.5% decline to a 4.3% growth in linear TV suggests that either advertisers are reconsidering traditional TV's role in the mix, or that broadcasters are maintaining pricing power. This could be driven by live events, sports, or targeted TV buys, which still hold substantial reach and impact.

• Linear TV’s resurgence could also be attributed to advertisers leveraging it alongside CTV buys for a hybrid approach to capture mass reach while layering on digital targeting.

The industry will see a renewed focus on cross-platform measurement and unified audience strategies,  where linear and CTV are bought together to optimize reach and frequency. Advertisers will invest in solutions that help bridge the gap between traditional and digital TV, tracking performance across both mediums. 

3. Resilience of Traditional Media:

• While other traditional media (e.g., print, radio) are still in decline, the rate of reduction has softened, suggesting some resilience. Brands may still be leveraging these mediums for specific purposes, such as local targeting or brand-building campaigns where digital fragmentation poses challenges.

Traditional media will remain a niche but stable part of the media mix. Expect brands to use integrated, multi-channel campaigns that combine traditional formats (e.g., print) with digital layers (e.g., QR codes or augmented reality activations) to drive engagement and provide measurable results.

 4. Diversification Across Digital Formats:

• The rise of digital out-of-home (OOH) and digital audio reflects the industry's move toward non-traditional yet highly engaging formats. These channels are growing as advertisers seek to reach consumers during everyday activities—on the go or through ambient listening.

Expect more dynamic, location-based digital OOH campaigns that leverage real-time data, as well as programmatic audio buys across streaming platforms and podcasts. Brands will continue to diversify their digital spending, optimizing for context and creating hyper-relevant messages for consumers in various settings.

Will AI Transform the advertising industry?

I ran a poll on LinkedIn through AdTechGod, and the results show mixed expectations about how AI will shape the AdTech industry over the next three years:

• 20% think AI is going to be totally transformative, meaning about one in five people expect it to revolutionize the industry.

• 46% predict a big impact but not a complete overhaul—so they’re expecting significant AI-driven changes but within the framework of existing practices.

• 30% foresee moderate improvements, suggesting AI will improve things but won’t drastically change the game.

• Only 4% believe AI will have little to no effect, so it’s clear most people see AI playing a key role in the near future.

What This Means for AI and AdTech

AI is already transforming up AdTech in areas like data analytics, programmatic advertising, and creative optimization. The poll shows that while opinions differ on the scale of change, the majority agree that AI will be a driving force. Whether it’s automating ad spend, refining targeting, or leveraging data for insights, AI is expected to bring meaningful improvements.

For the few who see AI as "completely transformative," it’s likely they’re thinking about future possibilities like real-time creative generation or predictive consumer behavior modeling, which could lead to even deeper personalization.

In short, while a full-on revolution may not be in the cards for most, AI is still a major player, set to push the industry forward in a steady, impactful way.

AdTechGod Poll on Linkedin here

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Q3 is in full effect. Here’s a meme from Medialad.

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